Decision Engine — Tool 03
Industrial Real Estate Vacancy.
Where the asking-rent comparison shifts a site-selection decision — and where rising vacancy rebalances the negotiation. v1 covers the 10 states that absorb most US-to-Mexico FDI, with per-cell citations to JLL, CBRE, Cushman & Wakefield, Newmark, NAI Mexico, and Solili quarterly reports. This is market-level intelligence, not park-level inventory — partner-network data integration is tracked for v2.
Coverage
10 states · primary industrial submarkets
Border markets, Bajío auto cluster, Central, Northeast. Sonora carries thinner broker coverage — flagged honestly per cell.
Sources
JLL · CBRE · Cushman · Newmark · NAI · Solili
Each cell cites the broker / market-intelligence platform behind the figure. Quarterly reports — Q1 to Q4 2025 cycle.
Refresh
Quarterly · Reviewed: 2026-05-01
Next scheduled review: 2026-08-31 (Q2 2026 broker-cycle close). Open access — no qualification required.
Compare states (10 of 10 selected)
Market dimension
Chihuahua
northwest
Submarket: Ciudad Juárez
Ciudad Juárez closed Q4 2025 at 10.7% vacancy, up from 8.0% one year earlier per Newmark — the highest among the 10 covered states. Driver: closures of large/medium businesses, sublease wave, tariff uncertainty. Sureste and Suroeste corridors carry 13.8% and 17.8% vacancy; central and northern corridors (closest to bridge crossings) are tighter at ~5–6%.
Newmark Ciudad Juárez Industrial Market Q4 2025
Primary source →Verified 2026-05-01
Nuevo León
northeast
Submarket: Monterrey metro (Apodaca, Ciénega de Flores, Salinas Victoria, Santa Catarina, Escobedo)
Monterrey Class A closed Q1 2025 at 5.7% vacancy per Newmark, up from 0.9% one year prior — the post-nearshoring-boom rebalancing. NAI's broader-inventory read for Q2 2025 was 8.15%, with availability at a 5-year high. Santa Catarina submarket carries 13.1% vacancy (highest); Guadalupe lowest at 1.8%. Newmark forecasts Class A to reach 6.0% in following quarter.
Newmark Monterrey Industrial Market Q1 2025 + NAI Mexico Q2 2025
Primary source →Verified 2026-05-01
Coahuila
northeast
Submarket: Saltillo + Ramos Arizpe (Torreón secondary)
Saltillo metro closed Q1 2025 at 2.0% vacancy per CBRE — among the tightest markets in Mexico. Up slightly from 0.7% Q1 2024 due to new supply entering inventory. Ramos Arizpe submarket holds 61% of available space; auto cluster (GM, Stellantis, Freightliner) anchors continued absorption demand.
CBRE MarketView Industrial Saltillo Q1 2025
Primary source →Verified 2026-05-01
Sonora
northwest
Submarket: Hermosillo + Guaymas (Empalme) + Nogales
Sonora is not in the tier-1 markets that JLL, Cushman, Newmark, NAI, or CBRE separately publish quarterly. Hermosillo, Guaymas, and Nogales appear as secondary references in cross-cuts. Harvard Growth Lab Hermosillo Diagnostics (Dec 2024) flags Sonora as underperforming peer states on manufacturing employment growth 2010-2020. Sonora-specific market data typically requires direct broker engagement (NAI, BVA, Tetakawi, American Industries) for park-level reads.
Harvard Growth Lab — Growth Through Diversification in Hermosillo (Dec 2024)
Primary source →Verified 2026-05-01
Baja California
northwest
Submarket: Tijuana + Mexicali + Tecate (Cali-Baja megaregion)
Tijuana closed Q4 2025 with the highest vacancy nationwide at 8.1% per Solili (NAI Q2 2025 read: 6.68%; Newmark Q1 2025: 5.91%). Mexicali at 6.2% Q4 2025 — both bracket 6%+ as tariff uncertainty and sublease activity churn the market. Florido–Blvd 2000 corridor 11.5% (Newmark); Otay-Alamar tighter at 1.0%.
Solili Industrial Report Q4 2025 + Newmark Tijuana Q1 2025
Primary source →Verified 2026-05-01
Querétaro
bajio
Submarket: Querétaro capital + El Marqués + San Juan del Río
Querétaro vacancy moved from 4.5% Q1 2025 (CBRE) to 6.1% Q4 2025 (Solili) — the steepest rise in Bajío. Driver: speculative new supply entering unleased. Querétaro accounted for >50% of Bajío's new supply through 2024-2025. Despite rising vacancy, Querétaro captured 24% of Bajío gross absorption Q1 2025.
CBRE Bajío Industrial Q1 2025 + Solili Q4 2025
Primary source →Verified 2026-05-01
Guanajuato
bajio
Submarket: León + Silao + Salamanca + Celaya + Irapuato
Guanajuato is among the tighter Bajío sub-states — only state nationwide where vacant m² declined Q2 2025 YoY per Solili. CBRE Bajío Q1 2025 regional vacancy 3.5%; Guanajuato sits below regional avg. PGIM Q3 2024 baseline: 3.1%. Auto cluster (GM, Mazda, VW components) driving sustained absorption.
CBRE Bajío Industrial Q1 2025 + Solili Q2 2025
Primary source →Verified 2026-05-01
San Luis Potosí
bajio
Submarket: SLP capital + Logistik + Villa de Reyes corridor
PGIM Q3 2024 baseline: 3.1%. Solili Q2 2025: SLP among markets with the largest annual vacancy increases. CBRE Bajío Q1 2025 reported SLP-specific vacancy not separately broken out (rolls into Bajío 3.5% regional). Logistik corridor remains anchor; auto/aerospace cluster (BMW, GM, Continental) sustaining structural demand.
PGIM Real Estate The Case for Mexico Industrial (Nov 2024) + Solili Q2 2025
Primary source →Verified 2026-05-01
Jalisco
central
Submarket: Guadalajara metro (El Salto + Zapopan + Periférico Sur)
Guadalajara Class A vacancy 3.4% Q1 2025 per CBRE — up from 1.6% Q4 2024 (+1.8 pp), driven by 80K m² of new vacant space. Cushman Q2 2025: broader-inventory vacancy 4.6% — highest since 2021. El Salto submarket holds the bulk of available space (87% of Q4 2024 vacancy).
CBRE MarketView Industrial Guadalajara Q1 2025 + Cushman Q4 2025 Mexico Labor Report
Primary source →Verified 2026-05-01
Puebla
central
Submarket: Puebla city + Cuautlancingo + Huejotzingo + San José Chiapa (Audi)
Puebla closed Q4 2025 at 1.5% Class A vacancy per Solili — tied with Aguascalientes for lowest nationwide. CANACINTRA reports 15 of 22 operating parks lack capacity for nearshoring-grade investments; available large parcels (>20 ha) scarce. Audi anchor at San José Chiapa drives sustained demand. Note: broader-inventory measures may show higher vacancy than Class A.
Solili Industrial Report Q4 2025
Primary source →Verified 2026-05-01
Field note
Mexico industrial vacancy at the national level closed 2025 at 4.6% (Solili Q4 2025), up from ~3% in late 2024 — the post-nearshoring-peak adjustment. Border markets (Tijuana, Mexicali, Ciudad Juárez, Reynosa) carry the highest vacancy as tariff uncertainty and sublease activity ripple through. Bajío and Central markets remain tighter. Class A and broader-inventory measures can differ — figures here favor Class A wherever brokers segment.
Methodology and what v1 does not model
Mexican industrial real estate intelligence is published quarterly by global brokers (JLL, CBRE, Cushman & Wakefield, Newmark) and local platforms (NAI Mexico, Solili). v1 aggregates the most-recent published quarter for each of the 10 states, anchoring on the broker that publishes the most rigorous coverage for that submarket. Class A figures are favored where brokers segment; broader-inventory measures are noted alongside.
In v1
Vacancy rate (Class A where segmented), asking rent (USD/m²/month or USD/sf/year, with conversion noted), net + gross absorption, and new-supply / pipeline reads for each state's primary industrial submarket. Each cell carries the broker's quarterly report URL plus the publishing date.
v1 does NOT model
Park-level vacancy across Mexico's 477 AMPIP-network parks is not publicly available. AMPIP holds the park-level dataset for partner network distribution; partner integration is tracked for v2. Building-search functionality and transaction-grade comparable lease comps require direct broker engagement (NAI Mexico, JLL Tijuana, CBRE Bajío, Cushman Monterrey). Sub-class B inventory is not separately surfaced. Sonora has thinner tier-1 broker coverage — flagged honestly per cell rather than fabricated.
v2 — AMPIP partner integration + park-level
Partner-network integration with AMPIP (Asociación Mexicana de Parques Industriales Privados) brings park-level vacancy, building specs (ceiling height, dock count, power capacity), and asking rents for the full 477-park inventory. Broker reports continue to provide market-level sanity checks; AMPIP becomes the spine.
v3 — building-search + total-cost-of-occupancy
Combine the v2 park-level inventory with Tools 01 (cost), 04 (timeline), 06 (incentives), 07 (labor), and 08 (energy) to produce a filterable total-cost-of-occupancy comparison across the 10 corridors for a stated user profile. The composability is the same pattern as the State-by-State Incentives v3 effective-rate calculator.
Adjacent reading
Adjacent tool
Industrial tariff, grid region, interconnection wait, anchor projects. The utilities layer that pairs with the real estate layer above. Same 10 states, same comparison logic.
Regional context
Northwest, Northeast, Bajío, Central, and Chihuahua — labor context, sector anchors, infrastructure, and the operating realities each corridor brings beyond the rent column.
Audit-grade work
Park-level building search, sub-station nearness, lease negotiation, BTS structuring, and the broker relationships that turn a market read into a signed lease. Where the tool ends and engagement begins.