Decision Engine — Tool 04
Timeline to Operation Estimator.
From LOI signed to first commercial shipment — a phased timeline with critical-path callouts. The shelter and standalone paths share most milestones but front-load very differently. v1 surfaces the differential and names the longest pole on each side.
Benchmarks
Atlantis & SUMMA engagements
10 phases · 1979–present · Reviewed: 2026-05-01
Statutory anchors
SAT · Secretaría de Economía · CFE
RFC issuance norms · IMMEX certification windows · CFE interconnection ranges. Phase ranges calibrated against current regulator timelines.
Access
Open · No qualification
Educated estimates calibrated to typical engagements. Your timeline depends on site, sector, and counterparty execution.
Shelter path
First shipment ≈ Oct 8, 2026
Standalone path
First shipment ≈ Mar 11, 2027
Differential
Standalone takes 22 weeks longer.
Shelter path
Critical-path pole: Equipment install and commissioning (8 wks)
Equipment install and commissioning is the most common pole for shelter engagements once site and entity questions are absorbed by the shelter operator.
Standalone path
Critical-path pole: Utility installation (power, water, gas) (12 wks)
Real estate delivery (especially build-to-suit and greenfield) and CFE interconnection are the two most common standalone-path poles.
Counted from LOI signed today (May 7, 2026).
Methodology and what v1 does not model
A standard 10-phase Mexico nearshoring sequence with explicit dependencies. Critical path computed forward and backward; phases on the critical path render in amber. Every phase carries a low/mid/high range — v1 displays mid-point durations and adjusts two phases (real estate, equipment) to user-selected posture.
In v1
Real-estate posture and capex intensity as adjustable inputs. Shelter vs. standalone shown side-by-side. Critical-path math and longest-pole callouts. Today as the LOI date, with first-shipment dates rendered live.
v1 does NOT model
Sector-specific permit cycles (medical-device cleanrooms, semiconductor fabs, automotive Tier 1 PPAP), counterparty-driven schedule slip, equipment lead-time spikes, currency or political shocks, force majeure. Heavy-industry projects routinely run high or above the high range. Light-assembly shelter projects routinely beat low.
v2 — sector and state overlays
Sector-driven adjustments to permits and ramp; state-driven adjustments to permitting and CFE interconnection; headcount-driven adjustments to workforce ramp. Backed by the per-region engagement data Atlantis carries on the regions section.
v3 — uncertainty bands
Each phase already carries a low/mid/high range in the underlying data. v3 renders the envelope as a band per phase so users see schedule risk visually, not as a single-point estimate.
Adjacent reading
The shelter path
When SUMMA's umbrella IMMEX is the right structure, and when it isn't. The path that compresses the timeline above by months.
Adjacent tool
The labor-cost differential between US and Mexico manufacturing — what's at stake on the other end of the timeline.
Adjacent tool
Section 122 sunsets July 24 2026. The duty exposure changes inside the same window most projects ramp through.